2027: Economic hardship, appointments threaten Tinubu’s support in Northern Nigeria

President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid is encountering resistance in parts of northern Nigeria over economic hardship and grievances about federal appointments and infrastructure, according to All Progressives Congress (APC) sources, even as party leaders intensify mobilisation for his return in 2027.

The sources identified former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s influence and longstanding political relationships as additional challenges to consolidating support across the North-West, North-East and North-Central.

But the Kaduna State chapter of the APC insisted that northerners owed Tinubu their support because of his backing for presidential contenders from the region, while another party chieftain, Dr Iliyasu Musa Kwankwaso, argued that voters would place development above ethnic or regional considerations.

The Kaduna chapter also pledged to mobilise two million votes for the president as preparations gathered pace for the October 24 flag-off of his presidential campaign in the state.

Speaking at a press briefing yesterday, the party’s Publicity Secretary, Mohammed Sani Haruna, said Tinubu’s political relationships with the North provided compelling reasons for the region to support his re-election.

“Going by the antecedents of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, I am bold to say that it is we, the northerners, that owe President Bola Ahmed Tinubu our support,” he said.

His declaration came amid concerns within sections of the ruling party that its extensive control of state political structures had yet to produce the level of popular enthusiasm its leaders expected.

According to party sources, mobilisation by governors and senior officials has yielded uneven results, with the cost of living remaining a dominant concern among voters across the three northern zones.

They said complaints about the distribution of appointments, infrastructure and other federal benefits had also complicated efforts to broaden the president’s support.

The sources maintained that Atiku remained a formidable challenger whose appeal among sections of the northern electorate could not be discounted.

They also claimed that some traditional rulers and community leaders were showing sympathy towards the former vice president during consultations, although they did not identify those concerned or provide public declarations of support.

The concerns contrast with the confidence projected by APC leaders at mobilisation events, including the recent North-Central rally in Lafia, Nasarawa State.

Party sources said such gatherings demonstrated organisational strength, but maintained that sustained engagement would be necessary to address grievances and translate endorsements into votes.

They described the appointment of former Zamfara State governor, Senator Abdulaziz Yari, as Director-General of the APC Presidential Campaign Council as part of efforts to strengthen mobilisation, particularly in the North-West.

Nevertheless, they said the party still faced the task of persuading dissatisfied voters that the administration deserved another term.

The 2023 presidential results also present a more complex picture than a uniformly hostile North. Tinubu led the aggregate vote in the North-West and North-Central, while Atiku led in the North-East.

Kaduna illustrates the challenge facing the ruling party. Although the APC retained the governorship in 2023, Atiku won the state’s presidential election with 554,360 votes, ahead of Tinubu’s 399,293 and Peter Obi’s 294,494.

Haruna, however, maintained that the political environment had changed under Governor Uba Sani, whose approach, he said, had attracted support from communities previously associated with opposition parties. Tracing Tinubu’s alliances with northern presidential contenders to the early 1990s, he cited his association with the Peoples Front led by the late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua and his support for Yar’Adua’s presidential aspiration.

He also recalled Tinubu’s backing for Atiku in 2007, Nuhu Ribadu in 2011 and Muhammadu Buhari’s successful presidential bid in 2015.

“It is on record that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is one of the few Nigerians in living memory who has shown and declared support, both in action and in spirit, for northern Nigeria’s aspiration to lead Nigeria,” he said. Haruna argued that Tinubu remained supportive of Buhari throughout his eight-year administration, despite criticism of the former president by some northern politicians and citizens.

“A lot of northerners during those eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari had cause to say negative things about the president then, but Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu has never for once castigated or condemned the leadership of President Muhammadu Buhari,” he said.

Atiku’s ethnic appeal won’t sway North — Iliyasu Kwankwaso

In a separate interview with newsmen, Dr Iliyasu Musa Kwankwaso, an APC chieftain and Director of Finance at the Hadejia Jama’are River Basin Development Authority, urged northern voters to support Tinubu, arguing that ethnic and regional appeals would have diminishing influence in 2027.

He said voters were increasingly conscious of governance, development and tangible benefits, and would scrutinise the records and proposals of presidential contenders.

“The North has no candidate for 2027 because the two candidates from the North are not of the people. Ethno-political card will not favour them,” he said.

Iliyasu argued that the region could no longer support a candidate simply because of geographical or ethnic background, insisting that federal projects offered voters concrete grounds on which to assess the administration.

“Tinubu means well for the North, going by the ongoing trillion-naira projects in the region. He sustained and drew a lifeline for the completion of inherited projects and kick-started new ones,” he said.

He claimed that the continuation of inherited projects and commencement of new interventions were changing perceptions of the president across the region.

“A common man in the North has come to realise real development under Tinubu. They have seen it, felt it and are convinced of Tinubu’s love for the region,” he said.

“The North has so many dividends to count under Tinubu than to gamble a golden opportunity.”

Kaduna APC promises two million votes

Meanwhile, Haruna said the Kaduna chapter was prepared to host Tinubu, party leaders and supporters from across the country, insisting that Sani’s pledge of two million votes was achievable.

“The show that our able governor has promised Mr President that Kaduna State is going to produce two million votes for the President is not just a mere saying; it is a fact,” he said.

He attributed the party’s claimed gains, including in Southern Kaduna, to the governor’s willingness to accommodate people across religious, ethnic and political divides.

“Now, we have a governor in the person of Senator Uba Sani who has shown regard and respect to every strata of opinion in Kaduna State.

“He has received everybody and created a large pool that everybody is welcome, irrespective of religion, irrespective of tribe, or any other social, economic or cultural difference.”

Haruna also claimed that the APC now controlled all elective positions across the state’s 23 local government areas, 255 wards, 16 federal constituencies and three senatorial districts.

A journalist challenged the assertion, recalling that opposition parties won all three Senate seats and 12 House of Representatives seats in Kaduna in the 2023 elections.

Responding, Haruna insisted that subsequent political changes had strengthened the APC’s position.

“If we say there is no opposition, it is not rhetoric; it is not a mere saying. It is a fact that is on the ground,” he said.

The spokesman described the selection of Kaduna for the campaign flag-off as a gesture of solidarity with the North, citing its history as the former capital of the Northern Region.

“There is no better solidarity or show of love for northern Nigeria than the choice of Kaduna as the city to host the flag-off of the presidential campaign.

“Anybody that chooses Kaduna for whatever action he wants to execute is not showing solidarity or love to the city of Kaduna alone; rather, he is showing that love to the whole of northern Nigeria,” he said.

The state chapter also announced the opening of a dedicated media centre to provide information on preparations for the launch.

“All information relating to the flag-off of this campaign are going to be sourced and given from this centre.

“We are ready, we are prepared, and our arms are open to welcome our guests on the 24th of October,” Haruna said.

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