Dangote refinery IPO could push Nigeria’s GDP to $600bn by 2030 – Rewane

Nigeria’s economy could receive a major boost from the proposed N2.15 trillion Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Dangote Refinery, with the investment potentially helping to raise the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from about $278 billion to $600 billion by 2030.

The projection was made by economist and Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), Bismarck Rewane, while speaking at an investor roadshow for the refinery’s IPO in Abuja.

Rewane said the proposed investment could have a wide impact on the economy by increasing industrial production, encouraging fresh investments, boosting consumer spending and expanding Nigeria’s export capacity.

According to him, Dangote Refinery’s planned expansion is particularly significant because of the scale of private-sector capital involved.

He noted that increasing the refinery’s production capacity from its current estimated 650,000–700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day could play a major role in transforming the structure and performance of the Nigerian economy.

Rewane explained that the expansion would not only affect the petroleum sector but could also create broader economic benefits through increased production and business activities linked to the refinery.

He said the planned IPO therefore represents an important investment opportunity with the potential to generate strong multiplier effects across different areas of the Nigerian economy.

According to him, Nigeria’s GDP, estimated at $278 billion in 2025, could rise to about $600 billion following the investment, while consumer spending could increase from $166 billion to $240 billion and investment from $72 billion to $216 billion.

He added that higher net exports could strengthen the naira and further increase the value of economic output.

Rewane said Dangote Refinery currently accounted for an estimated 16.91 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP by valuation and about 45 per cent of the country’s stock market capitalisation.

He urged Nigerians to take advantage of the IPO and invest in an asset he described as capable of generating significant economic and industrial benefits.

“Start small, stay invested, reinvest in the gains, and build wealth,” he said, describing the refinery as an impact investment for Nigeria and Africa.

Earlier, Chairman of the event, Mr Oluwagbenga Oyebode, described the IPO as a landmark transaction for Nigeria’s capital market, saying it would significantly increase market capitalisation while introducing greater energy and downstream exposure to the Nigerian Exchange.

He said the offer comprised 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share, with expected net proceeds of about N2.1 trillion, representing 3.3 per cent of the company’s issued capital.

According to Oyebode, the proceeds would be deployed entirely as growth capital to finance the next phase of the refinery’s expansion, rather than for balance-sheet repair.

He described the transaction, approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, as the first major public offering under the Investment and Securities Act, ISA, 2025.

Oyebode said the IPO could increase total market capitalisation from about N160 trillion to approximately N225 trillion, while deepening liquidity and broadening the sectoral composition of the Nigerian Exchange.

He said the offer was structured to attract retail investors, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares costing N5,250, in line with the promoters’ objective of making it an “IPO for the people.”

Oyebode said the promoters were targeting about 10 million retail investors, adding that the offer had also been assessed as Sharia-compliant, thereby widening the pool of potential investors.

Representing President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, at the roadshow, Regional Adviser, Fatima Wali Abdulrahman, said the IPO was part of the group’s broader vision of accelerating Africa’s industrialisation.

Dangote said the group intended to raise N2.15 trillion, equivalent to about $1.6 billion, at N525 per share to fund the refinery’s expansion programme.

He said the minimum subscription had deliberately been set at 10 shares to encourage wider participation, stressing that the objective was for “every Nigerian to own a piece of this asset.”

According to him, the group was also planning investments in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Namibia, while targeting listings in about six other African countries.

Dangote said Africans must take the lead in developing the continent’s economies, adding that the refinery and petrochemical complex would create opportunities for value creation across Africa.

Oyebode said the refinery’s expansion would not only increase fuel production but also strengthen Nigeria’s position in higher-value segments of the hydrocarbon value chain through petrochemicals, fertiliser, polymers and industrial feedstock.

Also speaking, Prof Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University urged investors to buy and retain their shares as a long-term investment.

Uwaleke said the IPO prospectus provided for an additional share as a bonus for investors who held their shares for at least one year.

He called for greater participation by retail investors, particularly artisans, workers and small-business owners, stressing the need to take the investment opportunity to ordinary Nigerians.

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