Risk institute (CRMI) warns of market turbulence following OPEC exit

The Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) has raised an alert over emerging geo-economic risks following the United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective May 1, 2026.

In a policy advisory signed by its Registrar and Chief Executive Officer, Mr Victor Olannye, the institute described the development as a major shift in global oil governance with far-reaching implications for energy markets and economic stability.

CRMI warned that the exit could trigger increased market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions across global energy supply chains. It advised corporate bodies, public institutions, financial organisations, and risk professionals to urgently reassess their risk exposure and strengthen resilience frameworks.

The institute listed several key risks, including a potential weakening of OPEC cohesion, heightened oil price instability, geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, macroeconomic shocks, and the possibility of other member states reconsidering their participation in the bloc.

For Nigeria, CRMI noted both opportunities and risks, stating that the development could create room for increased production flexibility, possible expansion of market share, and improved revenue prospects. However, it also warned of exposure to price volatility, reduced output stabilisation mechanisms, intensified competition, and fiscal uncertainty.

The institute urged corporate organisations to strengthen risk management systems, adopt flexible hedging strategies, and diversify operations, while advising financial institutions and investors to reassess energy-related exposures, improve portfolio diversification, and enhance risk disclosure practices. It also called on the public sector to strengthen fiscal buffers, accelerate economic diversification, and expand investment in renewable energy transition initiatives.

For individual risk professionals, CRMI recommended upskilling in geopolitical risk analysis and energy economics, alongside improved capacity in scenario planning and predictive analytics.

The institute further warned that the global energy landscape may be shifting toward fragmented oil governance structures, more market-driven pricing systems, and accelerated global energy transition efforts, urging stakeholders to proactively adjust strategies in anticipation of an increasingly uncertain geo-economic environment.

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