Nigeria’s economy set for 4.7% growth in 2026 – Wale Edun

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has said Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, as the Federal Government continues to push investment-led and inclusive growth policies aimed at creating jobs and improving the welfare of citizens.

Edun made this known on Thursday in Lagos while delivering the keynote address at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2026.

He explained that the projection reflects ongoing efforts by the government to stabilise the economy, attract investment and support productive sectors.

According to the minister, the 2026 growth forecast is in line with the government’s medium-term target of achieving seven per cent annual economic growth and building a one-trillion-dollar economy by the end of the decade, with a strong focus on sustainable development and shared prosperity.

According to Edun, the economy in 2026 is projected to grow at 4.68 per cent, consistent with our path to seven per cent growth per annum and a one-trillion dollar economy by 2030.

He projected average inflation at 16.5 per cent and the exchange rate at about N1,400 per dollar.

“For inflation, as we have said, we need to get into simple figures. It is expected to average 16.5 per cent and the exchange rate, N1,400 per dollar,” he said.

Edun noted that the 2026 budget, titled “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” reflects President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to ensuring that macroeconomic improvements translate into real gains in Nigerians’ daily lives.

“It is not about the metrics or the percentages; it is about the lived experience of Nigerians in terms of electricity supply, food availability and improved welfare,” he said.

He said the budget deficit, estimated at about four per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reflected the scale of Nigeria’s development needs and the ambition to accelerate growth.

Edun emphasised that following the removal of distortions and recent stabilisation measures, the focus of economic policy had shifted to driving growth through increased investment.

“Ongoing investments in digital infrastructure, including the rollout of over 90,000 kilometres of fibre optic cables in collaboration with the World Bank and the Ministry of Communications, are part of efforts to empower young Nigerians and support technology-driven growth,” he said.

The minister said the reform programme was anchored on four objectives.

“These include: consolidating macroeconomic stability, improving the business and investment climate, strengthening human capital while protecting the vulnerable through social protection, and stimulating broad-based economic growth,” he noted.

On fiscal performance, Edun said that even with shortfalls in oil and gas revenues compared to budgeted levels, the Federal Government prioritised fiscal federalism, transparency, and accountability in managing the federation account.

“This ensured that funds due to states and sub-national governments were fully disbursed, significantly strengthening their financial positions,” he said.

He added that many states recorded budget surpluses of about three per cent, enabling increased spending on health, education, public services, and other social and economic priorities.

Edun also highlighted that the Federal Government demonstrated fiscal discipline by extending the 2024 budget to ensure the completion of priority capital projects.

“Aggregate capital expenditure in 2024 stood at about N11.1 trillion, representing an 85 per cent performance, reflecting the administration’s emphasis on completing ongoing projects,” the minister explained.

He said all statutory obligations, including foreign and domestic debt servicing as well as salary payments, were fully met.

“These outcomes underscore a strong commitment to transparency, structural reform and fiscal discipline, as well as laying the foundation for rapid, sustained and inclusive growth,” Edun added.

He noted the government’s long-term growth target of seven per cent was aimed at outpacing population growth and lifting millions of Nigerians out of poverty.

The minister explained that reducing reliance on debt was a key fiscal priority, with renewed emphasis on boosting government revenue through digitalisation, central billing systems, and improved reconciliation processes to block leakages.

“The introduction of a central billing and receipt system would enhance transparency by tracking assessments and payments in real time across government agencies,” he said.

Edun also highlighted the implementation of a new tax law designed to be pro-poor, broaden the tax base, simplify compliance, and exempt essential goods, food items, and small businesses.

He said President Tinubu’s strategic vision was to build a resilient, diversified, and globally competitive economy, leveraging exchange rate stability and expanded trade opportunities under ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Edun identified key priorities for 2026 to include improving competitiveness through sound governance, boosting agricultural productivity and food security, accelerating infrastructure and energy development, and investing in human capital.

He acknowledged constraints in global concessional financing and said Nigeria must increasingly rely on domestic resource mobilisation and private sector investment to fund development.

Edun urged Nigerians at home and in the diaspora to take advantage of improved macroeconomic conditions to invest in the economy.

“The private sector is indispensable to sustaining growth,” he said.

Edun said that although the task ahead was challenging, the Federal Government remained resolute in translating economic stability into inclusive, job-rich growth.

“We remain committed to delivering tangible benefits to the average Nigerian,” he stressed.

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