PDP Fading, Growing ADC — What’s next for Adeleke in Osun?

Osun politics is entering another defining moment, and Tuesday’s massive crowd in Osogbo was the clearest sign yet that the road to 2026 will not follow the usual script.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), driven by the renewed energy surrounding former governor Rauf Aregbesola, pulled a level of grassroots momentum that many did not see coming, especially at a time people thought the former governor had quietly stepped out of active politics.

The huge turnout was not just another political gathering.

It was a message. Thousands of artisans, students, traders, loyalists and everyday residents lined the roads as Aregbesola moved from the Ataoja’s palace to the Technical College grounds.

For a man who once governed the state for eight years, and later fell out with his political heir, the warm public welcome showed that Aregbesola remains a potent force in Osun.

But beyond the atmosphere and nostalgia lies a deeper tension: Osun is gradually setting up for a major clash between Governor Ademola Adeleke’s performance narrative and Aregbesola’s revived political machinery, now riding fully on ADC’s platform.

Adeleke still enjoys popularity among youths and civil servants, but the harsh economic realities in the state and across Nigeria continue to create openings his opponents are ready to exploit.

Aregbesola wasted no time tapping into that public frustration. In his address, he spoke strongly on insecurity, poverty, worsening inflation and what he termed the “total failure” of the current administration.

His message clearly struck a chord among residents who feel government, both federal and state, has not been working in their favour.

Whether driven by dissatisfaction, nostalgia or pure political calculation, Osogbo residents showed they were ready to hear him again.

Even more politically significant was the endorsement from the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji Olanipekun.

Monarchs rarely take open positions, yet the Ataoja declared openly that he would not abandon Aregbesola, praising his developmental footprints.

That royal backing is unsettling for the PDP, especially in Osogbo where the ruling party prides itself on strong support.

While ADC is still a smaller party compared to APC and PDP, its rising momentum, boosted by respected figures such as Charles Omidiji, Azeez Adesiji, Felix Ogunwale, Najeem Salaam, Moshood Adeoti and others, signals a possible political upset if its rivals treat the movement lightly.

For Governor Adeleke, the message is straightforward: the dances, the charisma and the social media-friendly governance style will not be enough as the 2026 election draws closer.

Now is the moment to intensify efforts on infrastructure, security, job creation and real economic cushioning. Anything short of visible, tangible progress may give the opposition fresh ammunition.

And there is another twist in Osun’s unfolding political story: the uncertainty around Adeleke’s future political home.

The PDP, described by many as “dead” at the national level, continues to lose structure and direction.

This has fuelled ongoing speculation that Adeleke might be considering a move. Months ago, rumours circulated that the governor was eyeing the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

Now, with ADC experiencing a surge under Aregbesola’s influence, observers are also asking: Should Adeleke stay in a sinking PDP, or align with a rising movement like ADC?

Whether the rumours are mere political noise or genuine strategic exploration, one thing is clear—Osun’s political map is no longer stable.

New alliances may emerge, old alliances may collapse, and even major players may be forced to rethink their positions.

What Tuesday’s rally proves is simple: Osun is heading for a three-way political battle, PDP, APC and an increasingly confident ADC riding on Aregbesola’s second wind. Whether this is a temporary spark or the beginning of a major realignment will become clearer in the months ahead.

But one thing is undeniable: a new chapter has opened in Osun politics, and the journey to 2026 is already marked by tension, ambition, nostalgia and the unmistakable return of a political heavyweight.

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