Tinubu’s cabinet clears Three-Year spending plan as FG projects N50.7tn revenue in 2026

The federal executive council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), setting out Nigeria’s fiscal direction, revenue expectations, and spending priorities for the next three years.

Minister of budget and national planning, Atiku Bagudu, briefed journalists after Wednesday’s council meeting presided over by President Bola Tinubu.

He said the MTEF was jointly presented by the budget office of the federation and his ministry.

According to him, while the government adopted an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, fiscal planning is anchored on a more cautious output of 1.8 million bpd.

The oil price benchmark was set at $64 per barrel, with an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512 to the dollar.

Bagudu explained that the exchange rate projection takes into account the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, noting that all macroeconomic assumptions were derived from detailed analyses by the budget office and partner institutions.

Inflation is projected to average 18 percent during the year.

Based on these parameters, total federally collectible revenue in 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion. From this, the federal government is expected to receive ₦22.6 trillion, states ₦16.3 trillion, and local governments ₦11.85 trillion.

When consolidated with revenue from government-owned enterprises, including ₦4.98 trillion expected from GOEs, federal government revenue for 2026 is projected at ₦34.33 trillion, a decline of ₦6.55 trillion or 16 percent compared to the 2025 estimate.

Statutory transfers are projected to reach about ₦3 trillion, while debt servicing is expected to cost ₦10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent expenditure, covering personnel and overhead costs, is put at ₦15.27 trillion.

The fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at ₦20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of GDP.

The framework also projects that Nigeria’s nominal GDP will rise to over ₦690 trillion in 2026 and expand further to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028.

GDP growth is forecast at 4.6 percent in 2026.

Non-oil GDP is expected to grow from ₦550.7 trillion in 2026 to ₦871.3 trillion by 2028, while oil GDP is projected to increase from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion within the same period.

Bagudu said President Tinubu is optimistic that with macroeconomic stability gradually taking hold, sustained reforms and faithful implementation of the MTEF will place Nigeria on a stronger growth trajectory over the next three years.

He added that the council also reviewed submissions from ministries before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), a key guideline intended to strengthen spending discipline and ensure greater control of public finances.

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